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All Quiet On The River Front

Friday, March 14, 2008

With the initial surge of free agent spending throughout the NFL coming to an end, it’s time to assess some of the moves made. For this installment we will focus on the AFC North rival Cleveland Browns. Many pundits are heaping praise upon the Browns for their aggressive moves and claim the Browns have made themselves a contender. But as has been proven, time and time again in the NFL, teams cannot be built through free agency. Teams can add a few pieces to the puzzle, but loads of free agent money is often a waste, just look to the Washington Redskins as an example. Here is a list of the Browns major acquisitions and signings:
QB Derek Anderson, 3 years, $26million, $14million guaranteed
RB Jamal Lewis, 3 years, $17million, $7million guaranteed
WR Donte Stallworth, 7 years, $35million, $10million guaranteed
DL Corey Williams, 6 year, $38million, $16.3million guaranteed
DL Shaun Rogers, 6 year, $42million, $20million guaranteed
People are clearly being wowed by name recognition, but the Browns moves do not exactly point to a newly made contender. Before free agency began, the Browns had a few areas of solid ground on which to build a team, namely: A strong offensive line, Braylon Edwards, Kamerion Wimbley, D’Qwell Jackson, and Leigh Bodden. Many other good players appear on the roster, but they cannot be counted on for continual contributions.
On the offensive side, Kellen Winslow is a top level receiving TE, but his injury problems are well documented and he has had offseason knee surgery every year of his NFL career. As for keeping Jamal Lewis, his NFL career appeared to be in its twilight as Baltimore allowed him to leave believing Jamal no longer had it. The Browns signed the then 28 year old RB to a one year “prove yourself” contract. Lewis came out and proved he still had some energy left in the tank. Now that he is a year older, has taken 300 more tackles, and has $7million in guaranteed money in the bank, can the Browns count on Lewis to lead the offense? Derek Anderson had a strong, pro bowl, season. But his contract proves that even the Browns top brass is not sold on Anderson. If you had a franchise QB, would lock him up for only 3 years? Anderson’s contract pays him more than Brady Quinn, so he will enter the year without competition, but from there it is open season. And the Browns have clear reason to believe that Anderson is not the answer. They benefited from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL to go 10-6, but this year the schedule is much more difficult. With the easy schedule, Anderson came out on fire as most teams believed he was just a stop gap between Charlie Frye and Brady Quinn. Once teams realized Anderson had talent, they began to come after him and Anderson struggled down the stretch. Here are his numbers for the last 7 games of last season:

TEAM---COMP--ATT---COMP%---YARDS--TD--INT---RATING
@BAL----24-------38------63.2-------274-------0-----1--------73.8
HOU-----24-------35------68.6-------253-------2-----1--------96.5
@ARI----21--------41------51.2-------304-------2-----2--------71.6
@NYJ----16--------29------55.2-------185-------2-----1--------83.3
BUF------9---------24-------37.5-------137-------0-----0--------57.1
@CIN----29--------48------60.4-------251-------2-----4--------53.4
SF--------11--------20--------55.0-------152-------1-----1--------75.4
TOT----134------235------57.0------1556-----9---10-------72.2
Against 6 bad defenses and Baltimore, Anderson had a 72.2 passer rating down the stretch and gave Cleveland’s playoff hopes away with an embarrassing performance against the Bengals. Not exactly 8 year contract material.
But the most laughable signing of all is the Donte Stallworth move, 7 years, $35million, $10million guaranteed. How Drew Rosenhaus convinced the Browns to sign that deal should be studied by NASA. Stallworth’s average season throughout his career is:
Catches----Yards----Avg.----TD
46---------702------15.1----5.2
Playing for good teams recently has put Stallworth on TV more often causing people to believe that he is playing better now than earlier in his career. But that is just not true. Stallworth’s best year came in 2005 with the Saints when he had 945 yards and 7 TDs. In the past 2 seasons, playing for two pass happy offenses in the Eagles and the record shattering Patriots of last season, Stallworth has averaged:
Catches----Yards----Avg.----TD
42---------711------16.9----4.0
Basically no improvement, and should Stallworth expect his numbers to improve with Derek Anderson over playing with McNabb and Brady? Probably not. Even more embarrassing for the Browns is Stallworth's contract with the Patriots. Coming off a 725 yard, 5TD season with the Eagles, New England signed Stallworth to a 6 year, $33million deal, but with only $3.6million in year one guaranteed. After the $3.6million dollar year, the Pats decided Stallworth was not worth the money and ended the contract. So after being cut by the Pats, being a year older, and having a lesser year of 697 yards and 3TDs, the Browns swoop in and upgrade his contract to $35million with $10million guaranteed. While Stallworth is an upgrade over Joe Jurevicius, Smokey Joe is playing on a 4 year $10million contract. And for reference, Wes Welker is playing on a 5 year $18.1million deal. This is bad news for the Bengals though, because TJ is renegotiating his contract as we speak. I am sure that TJ’s agent is using the joke of Stallworth’s deal as the basement for a new contract.
On the defensive side, the Browns made a solid move in trading a 2nd round pick for Corey Williams. Williams has been a consistent and solid performer for the Packers. However, Williams played as a 1 gap tackle in the Packer 4-3 defense. Moving to the 3-4 in Cleveland, Williams will be playing a 2 gap tackle or nose. This move may or may not affect Williams, but that is a legitimate question for a guy who could get 30 tackles and 5 sacks per year as a penetrating tackle. Everyone in Bengal land knows about the Shaun Rogers deal, and for Rogers the Browns have set themselves up for failure. Rogers is a 29 year old man that weighs 350 pounds and has been battling weight, injury and attitude problems throughout his career. As a player, if motivated, Rogers could be a beast. The only way the Browns can justify that deal is if Rogers is a dominant force in the AFC North for years. Anything less would be a bust because the Browns have committed $42million, a 3rd round draft pick, and perhaps the biggest defensive thorn in the Bengals side in Leigh Bodden. Bodden has a mullet, so you know he is a dangerous man with speed. If Rogers eats his way to Ted Washington, the Browns will have a monumental misfire.
As a result of their recent moves, the Browns have given up their first 3 picks in the draft and committed $67million in guaranteed money to players not offering guaranteed results. Perhaps the Browns see that every team in the AFC North is on the way down and that these moves could put them over the top. They may very well win the weakened AFC North with a 9-7 record, but that is it, they are not a contender for anything more. Counting on 7 or 8 high priced players with shaky records and performance to all play at their career bests does not make a contender.
And is that worth sacrificing young talent and future growth through the draft? We will see, but the Browns will not pick until around the 125th spot in the draft(The full draft order for all rounds will be released later this month). They should be able to kill the time waiting for their pick by watching Shaun Rogers shut down multiple Golden Corrals in the Greater Cleveland area.



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